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日本央行:否认货币宽松有局限性 利率下调大有空间

文/黄凯琴 来源:第一白银网 09-05 11:21
摘要 周一北京时间10:30日央行行长黑田东彦将发表讲话,投资者普遍关注其是否会透露更多宽松立场,且本次黑田将是9月份日央行政策会议前的最后公开讲话。

  第一白银网9月5日讯 周一北京时间10:30日央行行长黑田东彦将发表讲话,投资者普遍关注其是否会透露更多宽松立场,且本次黑田将是9月份日央行政策会议前的最后公开讲话。

  最近媒体报道称,一直咬紧牙关坚持负利率的日本央行正在成为自己刀下的牺牲品,其持有的日本国债的账面价值较票面价值出现了高达8.7万亿日元(折合840亿美元)的损失。分析师表示,日央行手中持有的债券的票面价值为326.7万亿日元,但是其在日央行8月的资产负债表上的记账价值为335.4万亿日元,其账面浮亏较1月实施负利率之前的差额扩大了42%。

  来自日本东京研究机构的高级经济学家Sayuri Kawamura表示:“这些数字揭示了日本央行货币政策的扭曲情况。日本央行的年度摊销损失将会增加,并逐步侵蚀其利润。由此产生的风险也将会进一步增加,而央行的金融稳定性将会出现动摇。”

  黑田东彦讲话内容如下:

黑田东彦

  不认同货币宽松有局限性的观点,任何进一步宽松举措都附带着成本,贷款利率的下降是以银行利润为代价的,三个方面的任何一个都有宽松的充足空间,其他新构想不应被排除在讨论范围之外。有些做法并不合法,或本不应该去做,例如赤字货币化和直接承保债券,如果收益大于成本,则应毫不犹豫地放松政策,如有必要,将毫不犹豫地推进,仍有进一步下调利率的充足空间,日本央行将在所有选项中选择最合适的政策,尽快市场通胀目标将受益匪浅,将继续竭尽全力实现物价目标,不会考虑减少货币政策空间。

  碍于法律限制央行无法承销债券,因此央行能做的有其限制,在执行货币政策时需要谨记的并非其限制,而是权衡利弊得失,负利率对市场波动性及银行获利已造成冲击,因此需要评估这项政策,鉴于我们已实施大规模货币宽松举措,若进一步放宽政策将付出代价,通胀率将暂时在零或略低于零的水平徘徊,日本需要最有力的宽松举措,权衡放宽货币政策的利弊得失时,会视情况有所调整,执行货币政策时应保存弹性。

  本财年企业获利料略微下降,但仍有望维持高水平,日本不再陷于通缩,负利率政策目前似乎已成功降低企业及家庭融资成本,日本央行9月全面性评估不会引发导致削减货币宽松举措的讨论,日本央行量化质化宽松措施及负利率政策无疑对扭转经济贡献卓越,日本并未出现金融中介功能因负利率政策而受损的情况。

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