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发展中国家央行才是未来黄金牛市的关键!

文/黄琴 来源:第一白银网 09-22 10:34
摘要 美国现在只占总官方黄金储备的25%,,随着发达国家的经济影响力逐渐,发展中国家很有可能逐渐增持黄金储备,意味着从2008年开始的“黄金复兴”阶段仍然会持续一段时间。

  第一白银网9月22日讯 两个世纪以来,全球央行对于黄金的政策一直在改变。这可以分为七个不同的时期,而最近一个则是自2008年金融危机以来全球央行在黄金储备上的重建。

发展中国家央行才是未来黄金牛市的关键!

  黄金的这七个时期平均每个持续约30年的时间,而现在,“黄金储备的重建”时期是自1950至1965年以来央行在积累库存方面持续时间最长的一个阶段。在1950至1965年的二战后经济恢复阶段,全球主要央行与各国财政部宣布购买净总额超过7000吨的黄金。

  自2008年以来,央行已经增持了超过2800吨黄金,或9.4%,相当于每年350吨的净购入量。这与截至1970年的百年平均购买量持平,反映了在低利率甚至负利率的环境下,黄金作为避险资产重新受到了人们的追捧。

  今年以来,黄金作为货币资产得以复兴的其中一个原因是,发展中国家对于过度依赖美元储备表现出了不安。尤其是中国,政府似乎是在采取以黄金抗衡美元的策略。去年,中国六年来首次揭开了其黄金储备的部分面纱。截至2015年6月,中国所持黄金储备为1658吨,远高于前年同期的1054吨。截至今年8月份,该数据为1823吨。

  在发展中国家增持黄金储备之际,占据全球官方黄金储备比例最高的发达国家却在维持储备水平不变。欧元区各国央行在1999年签署了一份五年协议,并在2014年进行了延期,承诺2019年之前在黄金销售上采取限制性政策。

  全球最大的官方黄金持有者是美国,总额为8143吨,是中国的四倍有多、俄罗斯(1499吨)的五倍有多;紧随其后的是德国,总持有量为3378吨;接下来依次为IMF、意大利和法国,总额分别是2814吨、2452吨及2436吨。

  央行的黄金交易通常会与黄金价格有所背离。从1973年至2008年,央行是黄金的净售出者,在这将近四十年的时间内,金价总体处于上涨趋势。从2008年至今,金价在1000至1600美元/盎司的价格区间内大幅波动,不过央行的购买力似乎是2015年之后金价恢复的重要推动因素。

  央行、财政部等官方机构的黄金储备似乎一直稳定在地上库存的17.4%左右,低于2000年的23%及1970年的40%。不过考虑到前一个阶段央行是净卖出者,过去十年的央行黄金储备现已趋于稳定。

  在经历了二战后的大起大落后,央行的黄金储备总额再次回到了1950年代早期的水平。不过在过去70年间,黄金储备的主导力量先是从美国财政部转向欧洲,如今又向发展中国家转移,这标志着世界经济的多极形态已经形成。

  具体来看,美国现在只占总官方黄金储备的25%。历史上,这一数据在1900年为19%,在1920年为33%,在1940年为76%,在1960年为44%,在1980年为23%。而在未来几年,随着发达国家的经济影响力逐渐,发展中国家很有可能逐渐增持黄金储备,意味着从2008年开始的“黄金复兴”阶段仍然会持续一段时间。

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