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人民币对美元汇率迎来第四轮贬值 贬值幅度或超第三轮

文/周晔 来源:第一白银网 11-02 10:05
摘要 人民币对美元汇率,正在经历去年8月初以来的第四轮贬值,如果不出意外,这轮贬值的最终幅度或许超过前三轮。

  第一白银网11月2日讯 人民币对美元汇率,正在经历去年8月初以来的第四轮贬值,如果不出意外,这轮贬值的最终幅度或许超过前三轮。

人民币对美元汇率迎来第四轮贬值

  但奇怪的是,对于人民币的这一轮贬值,国际社会保持平静。既没有听说主要国家政府表示抗议,也几乎没有人试图在离岸市场做空人民币。

  只是在10月24日的时候,美国财政部长雅各布·卢通和中国副总理汪洋通了一次电话。根据新华社的通稿,双方“就中美经济关系有关问题交换了意见”。根据以往的惯例,我们有理由相信他们谈论了人民币汇率问题。

  另一个标志是:美国大选正到了关键时刻,希拉里和特朗普都没有拿人民币贬值问题说事。特朗普正抓住希拉里的“邮件门事件”,而希拉里则拿特朗普避税来做文章。

  人民币的“第四轮贬值”到目前之所以进展顺利,是两个因素造成的:

  1、在对美元显著贬值的同时,中国对主要市场化的货币维持了轻微的升值或者“既不升值,也不贬值”。这种策略叫“非对称性贬值”,所以绝大多数国家没有话说。

  2、中国对美元的贬值,主要是美元加息预期增强,美元指数不断攀升造成的。而且,在过去两年里,中国是全球货币里对美元贬值最少的币种之一,这是有目共睹的。所以,到目前为止,人民币的贬值属于正常的被动型贬值,而不是主动的、竞争性的贬值。

  最近一段时间,无论是媒体上还是朋友圈里,都可以感受到汇率管制收紧的迹象。未来一段时间,这种趋势是不会改变的。原因很简单,人民币未能迅速贬值到位。

  如果能做到迅速贬值到位,则汇率的博弈将在投资者之间进行;

  如果迟迟未能贬值到位,则博弈将在投资者和央行之间进行。

  如果是后者,则猫捉老鼠的游戏将没完没了、怪招频出!

  不过人民币很难一步到位式的贬值。原因很简单,国际金融体系受不了,中国的企业也受不了,那将带来市场的剧烈波动。更何况,什么叫到位,恐怕也充满了争议。

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