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美股能不能赚钱?要看美国大选是不是希拉里赢!

文/李莉芳 来源:第一白银网 11-09 09:59
摘要 瑞银集团运营总监Art Cashin认为,若希拉里赢得选举,而共和党把持参众两院,市场就不会有太大的反应。不过目前看来,共和党或将继续保持对众议院的控制,而参议院则有可能落入民主党手中。

      第一白银网11月09日讯 周一,在美国联邦调查局(FBI)宣布不再起诉希拉里之后,全球股市上涨,美股更是创下3月以来最佳表现。标普500指数上涨46点至2131点。交易员此前预期,选举日美股有望上升,周二美股开盘微跌。

美股

美股

  尽管美国大选总统候选人希拉里的一些政策对于投资者而言并不具吸引力,就市场而言,她的行为比特朗普更容易预测。虽然特朗普的税收和监管政策可能对市场更好,但若作为商人的特朗普获胜,或会导致股市大规模抛售,造成市场大幅波动。

  从历史来看,股市在民主党掌权期间表现更好。Bespoke Investment Group的Paul Hickey此前曾强调,自1900年起,道指在民主党总统任期内年平均回报率为8.9%,而共和党总统任期内则为3.8%。标普500指数在民主党总统任期内的表现更是远远好于共和党总统。截至目前,在奥巴马任期内,标普500指数回报率约达145%,仅次于克林顿任期内的209%。

  分析师表示,若特朗普获胜,市场可能会出现即时抛售,但若他对选举结果提出质疑,市场交易量也可能会大幅减少。

  瑞银集团运营总监Art Cashin认为,若希拉里赢得选举,而共和党把持参众两院,市场就不会有太大的反应。不过目前看来,共和党或将继续保持对众议院的控制,而参议院则有可能落入民主党手中。

  Cashin还指出,除了美国期货市场以外,全球股市都将迅速对美国大选作出反应。

  分析师预计,若希拉里当选,美国国债可能会遭遇抛售,美元会继续坚挺,股市和商品可能上涨。生物技术板块可能会再度承压,墨西哥比索可能上涨。若特朗普当选,美债收益率将下降。

  今年早些时候,Hickey曾引用前民主党总统杜鲁门的话称,市场往往更喜欢民主党候选人。“就如某位比我聪明得多的人曾经说过的,若想过上共和党人那样的生活,就投民主党的票吧。

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