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英国财政大臣哈蒙德:要保持英国经济韧性 以应对脱欧后的过渡期

文/陈鑫 来源:第一白银网 11-24 11:09
摘要 英国财政大臣哈蒙德周三(11月23日)在议会上表示,“我们现在的任务就是要让我们的经济在脱欧过程中保持韧性,同时调整好状态准备应对脱欧之后的过渡时期。”他的讲话得到其所在的保守党议员的欢呼。

第一白银网11月24日讯 英国财政大臣哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)周三(11月23日)在议会上表示,“我们现在的任务就是要让我们的经济在脱欧过程中保持韧性,同时调整好状态准备应对脱欧之后的过渡时期。”他的讲话得到其所在的保守党议员的欢呼。

英国财政大臣哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)

英国财政大臣哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)

哈蒙德称,6月公投决定退欧使得通过投资解决英国经济中的长期弱点变得“更加紧迫”,比如生产率成长增长缓慢。

为了应对退欧冲击,哈蒙德对于削减赤字的态度没有前任奥斯本那样严厉。他宣布了一个基金,将在未来五年内向铁路、电信和住房基础设施投资230亿英镑(290亿美元)。然而,他和首相特雷莎梅(Theresa may)并没有多少余地来大规模提高公共支出或减税,以帮助准备退出欧盟的英国经济。

英国预算责任办公室(OBR)近日表示,英国公投脱欧将损及经济,且英国借款预估的上调幅度远大于预期,这使得政府在缓解家庭与企业的压力方面只有很小的空间。

英国预算责任办公室(OBR)称,在接下来的五年,英国政府借贷规模将比3月时的预测增加1220亿英镑,其中大约一半是因为脱欧可能导致经济增长放缓。

该官方独立预算预测机构随后公布了自金融危机以来规模最大的年中国债增发计划,这推动英国国债收益率急剧攀升。

到目前的情况看,英国经济基本上经受住了脱欧公投的冲击。这让英国央行(BOE)和几乎所有的民间分析师大感意外,他们原本预计公投会立即带来更大的冲击。

但特雷莎梅计划在明年3月底前启动正式退欧谈判,对商界而言,意味着英国同欧盟今后关系将面临数年的不确定。此外,明年通胀率可能大幅上升,生活水平料承压。

OBR称,2017年和2018年国内生产总值(GDP)料分别增长1.4%和1.7%,低于3月公投前预测的增长2.2%和2.1%。

此外,该机构还表示,英国脱欧可能令贸易流动、企业投资和移民减少,削弱英国的增长潜力。不过该机构称,仍不清楚政府可能寻求什么样的脱欧协议。

哈蒙德给自己设定了较为容易的预算赤字目标,即扣除经济周期性波动的影响,2020年时赤字与GDP之比低于2%。

此前政府的目标为,实现整体盈余不晚于2020年底。然而这个目标实现的难度日益加大,促使前财政大臣奥斯本宣布了不受欢迎的节支计划。

英国脱欧竟是为了力挺中国?—链接

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